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[71.63.186.29]) by mx.google.com with ESMTPS id uz1sm147089igb.16.2012.11.06.12.10.13 (version=TLSv1/SSLv3 cipher=OTHER); Tue, 06 Nov 2012 12:10:14 -0800 (PST) From: Carey Dissmore Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="Apple-Mail=_3AB01DEA-E082-46C3-B405-60E7DD383ED2" Message-Id: <55B76079-5A38-4711-B776-DB5B66966E85@imugonline.com> Mime-Version: 1.0 (Mac OS X Mail 6.2 \(1499\)) Subject: Re: [AE] OT: Apple contemplating switching from Intel CPUs Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 14:10:15 -0600 References: To: "After Effects Mail List" In-Reply-To: X-Mailer: Apple Mail (2.1499) X-Gm-Message-State: ALoCoQm22YcyRP2J4DQLRMbKZ3uyxa7eilwQC20Pbrp8Jqpz5GG8LlyClDhHxrQxbCrZ0dLB9ch4 --Apple-Mail=_3AB01DEA-E082-46C3-B405-60E7DD383ED2 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/plain; charset=windows-1252 Looking ahead in a big-picture, macro sort of way, I see several things = being universally true for video production: Frame sizes, frame rates (at least on acquisition side), a sheer volume = of data will continue to increase. A lot. Computing power required to process that video data for editing, = effects, 3D, physics simulation and more will continue to increase. A = lot. Storage subsystems and the infrastructure to move that data to where it = needs to go will need to increase dramatically as well.=20 The point being, all this fascination with mobility, thin clients, low = power and small is fine as long as there is an acknowledgement that at = the other end of that is the need for very big, very serious horsepower = --- and just as importantly ---big data pipes. Adobe Anywhere is a beginning of a group-oriented solution for this, but = I expect it's capabilities to evolve a lot faster than I expect internet = speeds/costs to evolve, so that will be the bottleneck.=20 Got the footage in from a day of shooting yesterday. Just 500GB, as it = was a smallish single-cam greenscreen shoot. Imagine pushing that = through the internet. Takes over 2 hours just on my suped-up gigabit = LAN. Figure about 40x longer over a very fast internet connection. I'm = not saying we won't get there one day, just that the realities of the = situation are, for the forseeable future, going to require locally = connected storage (at least at the facility level). As far as trying to take what is happening in the realm of personal = computers in the direction of a platform war...count me out.=20 I worked in this business with many different expensive machines before = my favorite personal computer platform was a factor in making video = production happen. I am perfectly capable of using multiple machines = running different operating systems to do my work in the future. Doesn't = mean I have to check my email on them. carey On Nov 6, 2012, at 7:58 AM, Ed Wiser wrote: > An the lap dock by Motorola was just killed.=20 >=20 > = http://phandroid.com/2012/09/10/motorola-kills-off-the-lapdock-discounts-r= emaining-stock-to-50-at-verizon-wireless-locations-deals/ > Sent from my iPhone >=20 > On Nov 6, 2012, at 4:17 AM, Evan Fotis wrote: >=20 >> for what its worth Asus is already materializing this kind of = solution with the padphone already in its second incarnation: >> http://www.asus.com/Mobile/PadFone2/ >>=20 >> http://www.trustedreviews.com/asus-padfone-2_Mobile-Phone_review >>=20 >> http://www.engadget.com/2012/10/25/asus-padfone-2-review/ >>=20 >> On 06-Nov-12 08:28, Greg Balint wrote: >>> Relevant device here - = http://clamcase.com/clambook-android-and-iphone-laptop-dock.html >>>=20 >>> A lot of people say it's VaporWare (meaning it's never going to get = legs, and become a real product) because there are only CG renders of = the thing, and no actual physical ClamBook has been seen. >>>=20 >>> I think it'd be an interesting solution, for mobility at least, but = I'd hate to work on something like that. >>>=20 >>> Something about the behemoth case next to my right leg, blowing hot = air out at my ankle makes me feel like I'm getting more work done. >>>=20 >>>=20 >>> ///Greg Balint >>> //Art Director / Motion Graphics Designer >>> /321.514.4839 >>> delRAZOR.com/=20 >>> On 11/6/2012 12:34 AM, Tsassoon wrote: >>>> Yes, and you'll rent all that stuff from el cloud. The big thing = that's missing is a display decoupled from the physical bounds of the = device. >>>>=20 >>>>=20 >>>> Tim Sassoon >>>> SFD >>>> Santa Monica, CA >>>>=20 >>>> Sent from my iPhone >>>>=20 >>>>=20 >>>>=20 >>>> On Nov 5, 2012, at 9:04 PM, "Stephen van Vuuren" = wrote: >>>>=20 >>>>> > I'm not sure the desktop will exist in five years. >>>>> =20 >>>>> People have been predicting it=92s death almost since it was = invented. = http://www.technologyreview.com/view/428507/predicting-the-post-pc-era-20-= years-ago/ >>>>> =20 >>>>> I think physics and cost get left out of the equation. If it=92s = possible to build a computer in 5 years that fits in a tiny phone that=92s= as powerful as workstation today =96 it also means in 5 years a that = same CPU technology will power a desktop 5 times as powerful as that = phone for probably the same money or less. >>>>>=20 >>>>> So, in 5 years are you buying the phone or the desktop that=92s = five times as powerful? >>>>>=20 >>>>> We=92ve had tiny computers for 20 plus years =96 I had a Zeos = handheld smaller and lighter than an iPad with a =93desktop=94 class 386 = CPU 20 years ago. It=92s nothing new, it=92s just they are in phones = with a GUI now. >>>>> =20 >>>>> I willing to bet a 6 pack of the finest in 5 years the desktop = will not be dead for workstation users. You=92ll have client wanting 4D = holographic compositing and need a 100-core desktop with a terabyte of = RAM to run it. >>>>> =20 >>>>> stephen van vuuren >>>>> 336.202.4777 >>>>> =20 >>>>> http://www.insaturnsrings.com/ >>>>> http://www.sv2dcp.com/ >>>>> http://www.sv2studios.com/ >>>>> =20 >>>>> A film is =96 or should be =96 more like music than like fiction. = It should be a progression of moods and feelings. The theme, what=92s = behind the emotion, the meaning, all that comes later. >>>>> =96Stanley Kubrick >>>>> =20 >>>>> From: After Effects Mail List [mailto:AE-List@media-motion.tv] On = Behalf Of Tim Sassoon >>>>> Sent: Monday, November 05, 2012 6:40 PM >>>>> To: After Effects Mail List >>>>> Subject: Re: [AE] OT: Apple contemplating switching from Intel = CPUs >>>>> =20 >>>>> I'm not sure the desktop will exist in five years. Or OS X. Or = Android. iOS and WinMob, yes. >>>>> =20 >>>>> =20 >>>>> Tim Sassoon >>>>> Sassoon Film Design >>>>> 2525 Main Street >>>>> Suite 206 >>>>> Santa Monica, CA 90405 >>>>> W 310.664.9115 >>>>> M 310.266.8630 >>>>>=20 >>>>>=20 >>>>> =20 >>>>> On Nov 5, 2012, at 3:05 PM, S=F8ren Christensen = wrote: >>>>>=20 >>>>>=20 >>>>> Silicon Graphics could probably tell a story or two about what can = happen if you go too pro only >>>>> =20 >>>=20 >>=20 --Apple-Mail=_3AB01DEA-E082-46C3-B405-60E7DD383ED2 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset=windows-1252 wiserone1@gmail.com> = wrote:
An the lap dock by Motorola was = just killed. 

On Nov 6, 2012, at 4:17 AM, Evan Fotis = <evan.fotis@gmail.com> = wrote:

=20 =20 =20 for what its worth Asus is already materializing this kind of solution with the padphone already in its second incarnation:
http://www.asus.com/Mobile/P= adFone2/

= http://www.trustedreviews.com/asus-padfone-2_Mobile-Phone_review

http://= www.engadget.com/2012/10/25/asus-padfone-2-review/

On 06-Nov-12 08:28, Greg Balint = wrote:
Relevant device here - = http://clamcase.com/clambook-android-and-iphone-laptop-dock.html

A lot of people say it's VaporWare (meaning it's never going to get legs, and become a real product) because there are only CG renders of the thing, and no actual physical ClamBook has been seen.

I think it'd be an interesting solution, for mobility at least, but I'd hate to work on something like that.

Something about the behemoth case next to my right leg, blowing hot air out at my ankle makes me feel like I'm getting more work done.


///Greg Balint
//Art Director / Motion Graphics Designer
/321.514.4839
delRAZOR.com/
On 11/6/2012 12:34 AM, Tsassoon wrote:
=
Yes, and you'll rent all that stuff from el cloud. The big thing that's missing is a display decoupled from the physical bounds of the device.


Tim Sassoon
SFD
Santa Monica, CA

Sent from my iPhone



On Nov 5, 2012, at 9:04 PM, "Stephen van Vuuren" <stephen@sv2studios.com> wrote:

> I'm not sure the desktop will exist in five = years.

 

People have been predicting it=92s death almost since it was invented. http://www.technologyreview.com/view/428507/predicting= -the-post-pc-era-20-years-ago/

 

I think physics and cost get left out of the equation. If it=92s possible to build a computer in 5 years that fits in a tiny phone that=92s as powerful as = workstation today =96 it also means in 5 years a that same CPU technology will power a desktop 5 times as powerful as that phone for probably the same money or = less.


So, in 5 years are you buying the phone or the desktop that=92s five times as = powerful?


We=92ve had tiny computers for 20 plus years =96 I had = a Zeos handheld smaller and lighter than an iPad with a =93desktop=94 class 386 CPU 20 years ago. It=92s = nothing new, it=92s just they are in phones with a GUI = now.

 

I willing to bet a 6 pack of the finest in 5 years the desktop will not be dead for workstation users. You=92ll= have client wanting 4D holographic compositing and need a 100-core desktop with a terabyte of RAM to run it.

 

stephen van vuuren

336.202.4777

 

http://www.insaturnsrings.com/<= b>

http://www.sv2dcp.com/

http://www.sv2studios.com/

 

A film is =96 or should be =96 more like music than = like fiction. It should be a progression of moods and feelings. The theme, what=92s behind the emotion, the meaning, all that comes = later.

=96Stanley Kubrick

 

From: After Effects Mail List [mailto:AE-List@media-motion.tv= ] On Behalf Of Tim Sassoon
Sent: Monday, November 05, 2012 6:40 PM
To: After Effects Mail List
Subject: Re: [AE] OT: Apple contemplating switching from Intel CPUs

 

I'm not sure the desktop will exist in five years. Or OS X. Or Android. iOS and WinMob, = yes.

 

 

Tim Sassoon
Sassoon Film = Design
2525 Main = Street
Suite = 206
Santa Monica, CA 90405
W = 310.664.9115
M = 310.266.8630


 

On Nov 5, 2012, at 3:05 = PM, S=F8ren Christensen <soren@desilence.net> wrote:



Silicon Graphics could probably tell a story or two about what can happen if you go too pro = only

 



=20

= --Apple-Mail=_3AB01DEA-E082-46C3-B405-60E7DD383ED2--