Return-Path: Received: from gateway11.websitewelcome.com ([67.18.55.4] verified) by media-motion.tv (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 4.2.10) with ESMTP id 4893295 for AE-List@media-motion.tv; Wed, 07 Nov 2012 16:38:03 +0100 Received: by gateway11.websitewelcome.com (Postfix, from userid 5011) id 7B64863A4A5F0; Wed, 7 Nov 2012 09:41:07 -0600 (CST) Received: from gator1184.hostgator.com (gator1184.hostgator.com [174.121.151.98]) by gateway11.websitewelcome.com (Postfix) with ESMTP id 6D20063A4A5D0 for ; Wed, 7 Nov 2012 09:41:07 -0600 (CST) Received: from [24.167.166.243] (port=59651 helo=Neptune) by gator1184.hostgator.com with esmtpa (Exim 4.80) (envelope-from ) id 1TW7kX-0005G5-Vt for AE-List@media-motion.tv; Wed, 07 Nov 2012 09:41:06 -0600 Reply-To: From: "Stephen van Vuuren" To: "'After Effects Mail List'" References: In-Reply-To: Subject: RE: [AE] OT: Apple contemplating switching from Intel CPUs Date: Wed, 7 Nov 2012 10:41:03 -0500 Organization: SV2 Studios Message-ID: <00bf01cdbcfe$4bd30c90$e37925b0$@sv2studios.com> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_00C0_01CDBCD4.62FE8B30" X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 14.0 Thread-Index: AQHYQgpfThLc3j1KtkVE05I/8xxXlJfJcyNg Content-Language: en-us X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report X-AntiAbuse: Primary Hostname - gator1184.hostgator.com X-AntiAbuse: Original Domain - media-motion.tv X-AntiAbuse: Originator/Caller UID/GID - [47 12] / [47 12] X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - sv2studios.com X-BWhitelist: no X-Source: X-Source-Args: X-Source-Dir: X-Source-Sender: (Neptune) [24.167.166.243]:59651 X-Source-Auth: stephen@sv2studios.com X-Email-Count: 5 X-Source-Cap: c3RlcGhlbnY7c3RlcGhlbnY7Z2F0b3IxMTg0Lmhvc3RnYXRvci5jb20= This is a multipart message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_00C0_01CDBCD4.62FE8B30 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit >Just to be clear, I'm actually saying I think the whole "image processing on the cloud" thing actually will happen at some point, but I see the most obvious bottleneck being how to get massive source material from point of acquisition up to the cloud servers in short order People have been saying this future of dumb terminals and central processing - now called the cloud, has been coming for decades now. But those that argue for it ignore three very basic fundamental facts. 1. Physics: The speed of light means when you have two equivalent CPUs, the closest one will render faster, thus with less total time, energy and cost. Thus, to create distant processing requires more powerful remote CPUs. Distance means time, energy and therefore costs must be absorbed to process remotely as opposed to locally. Moore's Law has applied to CPUs but not to data transmission, thus meaning unless this flips, data transmission will NEVER catch up to increases in processing. 2. Trend is computing is distributed, local cores, not central powerful cores. Smartphones, tablets have not changed the computing paradigm of the last 20 years at all. They contain the same parts and computing model as workstation - an increasing amount of multiple cores for powerful local computing (Intel sees 100 core smartphones), increasing core count GPUs and larger local storage - with slow increase in data transmission. If neither smartphones, tablets nor workstations are trending towards cloud computing, then how can you argue that is where everything is going? Just because Google Maps and Siri are popular, don't forget Angry Birds needs a fast CPU and GPU and storage running locally. 3. The smaller, more mobile and lighter you make something, assuming processing power and technology is the same, the slower, more expensive and hotter it will be. Just look at Ivy Bridge vs. Sandy Bridge. While incremental technology improvements have helped, we have yet to make the breakthrough to completely flip this around. If you have breakthrough that makes a smartphone sized processor faster, it will also make a desktop faster - but much faster, cooler and cheaper in a larger form factor. stephen van vuuren 336.202.4777 http://www.insaturnsrings.com/ http://www.sv2dcp.com/ http://www.sv2studios.com/ A film is - or should be - more like music than like fiction. It should be a progression of moods and feelings. The theme, what's behind the emotion, the meaning, all that comes later. -Stanley Kubrick From: After Effects Mail List [mailto:AE-List@media-motion.tv] On Behalf Of Carey Dissmore Sent: Wednesday, November 07, 2012 8:36 AM To: After Effects Mail List Subject: Re: [AE] OT: Apple contemplating switching from Intel CPUs Hey Teddy, Just to be clear, I'm actually saying I think the whole "image processing on the cloud" thing actually will happen at some point, but I see the most obvious bottleneck being how to get massive source material from point of acquisition up to the cloud servers in short order. Once it's "up there" a lot of things can become possible with thin clients and streaming a single video output stream back to the user. Look at the OnLive gaming platform. The tech is good even if the business model, in that case, suffered. But at the same time I'm also not saying we are all dumping desktop computing in short order either. Carey On Nov 6, 2012, at 6:01 PM, Teddy Gage wrote: I'm with Carey. I was in the middle of an email about this when I read all the replies, so I scrapped it. He said everything I was saying. Basically, I don't think the "desktop" will ever just go away. Once you start getting into physical simulations, like realflow or fumeFX, even a brand new hex core workstation feels like working on a cellphone from 1993. Not even to mention rendering that stuff at 4K with GI and raytracing etc. I don't even think we'll hit some kind of limit where "ok, this is fast enough", because it can always look better or render faster. ------=_NextPart_000_00C0_01CDBCD4.62FE8B30 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

>Just to be clear, I'm actually saying I think the whole = "image processing on the cloud" thing actually will happen at = some point, but I see the most obvious bottleneck being how to get = massive source material from point of acquisition up to the cloud = servers in short order

 

People have been saying this future of dumb terminals and central = processing – now called the cloud, has been coming for decades = now. But those that argue for it ignore three very basic fundamental = facts.

 

1.       = Physics: The speed of light means when you have two equivalent CPUs, = the closest one will render faster, thus with less total time, energy = and cost. Thus, to create distant processing requires more powerful = remote CPUs. Distance means time, energy and therefore costs must be = absorbed to process remotely as opposed to locally. Moore’s Law = has applied to CPUs but not to data transmission, thus meaning unless = this flips, data transmission will NEVER catch up to increases in = processing.

2.       = Trend is computing is distributed, local cores, not central powerful = cores. Smartphones, tablets have not changed the computing paradigm of = the last 20 years at all. They contain the same parts and computing = model as workstation – an increasing amount of multiple cores for = powerful local computing (Intel sees 100 core smartphones), increasing = core count GPUs and larger local storage – with slow increase in = data transmission. If neither smartphones, tablets nor workstations are = trending towards cloud computing, then how can you argue that is where = everything is going? Just because Google Maps and Siri are popular, = don’t forget Angry Birds needs a fast CPU and GPU and storage = running locally.

3.       = The smaller, more mobile and lighter you make something, assuming = processing power and technology is the same, the slower, more expensive = and hotter it will be. Just look at Ivy Bridge vs. Sandy Bridge. While = incremental technology improvements have helped, we have yet to make the = breakthrough to completely flip this around. If you have breakthrough = that makes a smartphone sized processor faster, it will also make a = desktop faster – but much faster, cooler and cheaper in a larger = form factor.

 

stephen van vuuren

336.202.4777

 

http://www.insaturnsrings.com/=

http://www.sv2dcp.com/<= /b>

http://www.sv2studios.com/<= /span>

 

A film is – or should be – more like music than like = fiction. It should be a progression of moods and feelings. The theme, = what’s behind the emotion, the meaning, all that comes = later.

–Stanley Kubrick

 

From:= = After Effects Mail List [mailto:AE-List@media-motion.tv] On Behalf Of = Carey Dissmore
Sent: Wednesday, November 07, 2012 8:36 = AM
To: After Effects Mail List
Subject: Re: [AE] OT: = Apple contemplating switching from Intel = CPUs

 

Hey = Teddy,

 

Just to be clear, I'm actually saying I think the = whole "image processing on the cloud" thing actually will = happen at some point, but I see the most obvious bottleneck being how to = get massive source material from point of acquisition up to the cloud = servers in short order. Once it's "up there" a lot of things = can become possible with thin clients and streaming a single video = output stream back to the user. Look at the OnLive gaming platform. The = tech is good even if the business model, in that case, suffered. But at = the same time I'm also not saying we are all dumping desktop computing = in short order either. 

 

Carey

 

On Nov 6, 2012, at 6:01 PM, Teddy Gage <teddygage@gmail.com> = wrote:



I'm with = Carey. I was in the middle of an email about this when I read all the = replies, so I scrapped it. He said everything I was saying. Basically, I = don't think the "desktop" will ever just go away. Once you = start getting into physical simulations, like realflow or fumeFX, even a = brand new hex core workstation feels like working on a cellphone from = 1993. Not even to mention rendering that stuff at 4K with GI and = raytracing etc. I don't even think we'll hit some kind of limit where = "ok, this is fast enough", because it can always look better = or render faster. 

 

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